Strengthening the Climate Resilience of Côte d’Ivoire’s Hydropower Sector

How can hydropower infrastructure remain reliable and resilient in a rapidly changing climate?

In Côte d’Ivoire, climate change is redefining the operating conditions of hydropower systems, with shifting river flows, rising temperatures and increasing flood risks posing both challenges and opportunities for the sector. To address these dynamics, Tractebel developed a Climate Risk Management Plan (CRMP) designed to turn climate science into actionable operational, strategic and monitoring solutions, directly supporting the country’s long term energy security and climate resilience.

As climate change increasingly affects water availability and energy reliability in West Africa, hydropower systems are facing both unprecedented risks and new opportunities.
Between 2020 and 2022, Tractebel, drawing on its recognized expertise in climate risk assessment and adaptation planning, supported Côte d’Ivoire in assessing the climate vulnerability and adaptation pathways of its hydropower sector. The project, funded by the French Development Agency, contributes directly to the country’s long-term energy security and climate resilience.
The study area covered ten existing and planned hydropower schemes located in the nation’s two main river basins: the Bandama and the Sassandra. The assessment followed the International Hydropower Association’s Climate Resilience Guide , combining historical climate analysis, long-term climate projections, and system stress tests to evaluate hydropower sensitivity to future climate conditions.

Overall, the assessment reveals a striking dual reality: while climate change introduces new operational risks, it also unlocks significant potential for increased hydropower generation.
This dual reality highlights the strategic importance of forward‑looking climate planning to both secure existing assets and maximize future renewable energy potential.
Under the most plausible 2040 climate scenario, projected annual flows could increase hydropower energy potential by up to 30% in the Bandama and 47% in the Sassandra watersheds, creating a strong opportunity for enhanced renewable electricity production. These opportunities, however, come hand‑in‑hand with growing climate‑related risks, particularly regarding flooding and heat stress on transmission infrastructure.

Building on these findings, Tractebel developed a comprehensive Climate Risk Management Plan (CRMP), designed to bridge the gap between climate projections and day-to-day operational and strategic decision making for hydropower operators and policymakers.

The CRMP is structured around three complementary pillars:

• Operational: development of a real-time water management tool, strengthening of the hydrometeorological network, and improved cross-sector coordination.
• Strategic: long-term recommendations for climate-resilient transmission infrastructure and the definition of adaptation pathways based on precipitation evolution.
• Monitoring: identification of key climate and performance indicators (precipitation, streamflow, temperature, production, outages) and recommendations for a robust monitoring framework, including 10 year updates to climate risk assessments.

Strong stakeholder engagement was a cornerstone of the project, ensuring that tools and recommendations were not only technically sound, but also aligned with the operational realities and decision-making needs of local actors.
This participatory approach strengthens the long-term ownership of the results and enhances Côte d’Ivoire’s capacity to manage hydropower assets under increasingly uncertain climate conditions.